EPIC Brief #10
By Jim Caruso
In The News
Bank of America Study: Early December Could Overtake Black Friday as the Peak Holiday
Shopping Window This Year
After years of speculation and the growing use of year-round sales - from Amazon Prime Day in July through Cyber sales starting November 1st- Black Friday may finally not be the main event this year. In a Bank of America 2026 Holiday Spending Survey, 29% of consumers are targeting early to mid-December for the bulk of their shopping, up from 19% last year. The actual calendar day of Black Friday fell from 25% to 17%, and among Gen Z it nearly halved, from 41% to 21%. Not surprisingly, given the broader economic conditions, most people also aren’t planning for bigger spending budgets this year. Only 12% expect to spend more this year, while 48% expect to spend about the same and 39% expect to spend less. Bank of America’s Mary Hines Droesch said consumers are “being more deliberate this year.”
What interests me most is further down. According to Bank of America, 72% have no plans to use AI for their holiday shopping, up from 49% last year. For all the talk about how much AI is used to research, inform, and even make purchases for consumers, it may be further along the adoption curve than most realize. More startling, just 14% expect to buy a gift directly through social media, down from 35%. Among Gen Z, that number went from 55% to only 21%. For any brand counting on AI or social checkout this season, I think those numbers deserve a close look.
To me, the reasons are the real story – especially if we think these are directionally accurate. Personal or ethical concerns came first (42%), followed by the sense that AI takes away the personal side of gift-giving (37%) and distrust of its recommendations (26%). The latter aren’t new; people have been saying the same thing about online gift cards and virtual gifting for years. However, believing what AI agents tell you to buy is a more fundamental trust issue.
Overall, the most common uses of AI were comparing prices or deals (17%) and getting gift ideas (14%). Writing a gift message or card is about as personal as shopping gets, and just 7% cited it.
I wouldn’t write off AI shopping based on one survey, though. These are plans people shared in September, and Bank of America’s own data shows holiday spending already rising, even as consumers sound cautious.
Additionally, this doesn’t really break the data out by industry or gift type. Brands likely need to really dive into the data that’s relevant to what they are selling and see how the adoption looks – are they seeing more traffic from AI agents to their site? Is it becoming significant? Also, if they’ll use AI to compare prices but want to handle the personal parts of gift-giving themselves, that should shape how you optimize your online offers.
Inside EPIC
Bank of America found Gen Z pulling back sharply from Black Friday, and from buying through social, so I wanted to see who these younger shoppers are. Using EPIC’s consumer insights platform, I compared Gen Z + Millennials and Parents with the general US 18+ population. Here is what I found:
Less interest in the big sale days. Gen Z + Millennials are 19% less likely than US adults to have a social media affinity for Black Friday, and 20% less likely for Cyber Monday. Parents are 8% and 6% more likely.
Fewer coupon clippers. Gen Z + Millennials are 31% less likely than US adults to have a social media affinity for deals and couponing. Parents are 12% more likely.
TikTok over Amazon. 24.8% of Gen Z + Millennials have a social media affinity for TikTok, compared with 20.9% of US adults. They’re 20% less likely to have one for Amazon.
Creators matter. Gen Z + Millennials are 47% more likely than US adults to have a social media affinity for shopping influencers, and 25% less likely for AI and machine learning as a tech topic.
Different budgets. 20.0% of Gen Z + Millennials have household incomes under $50K, compared with 17.6% of US adults. Among Parents, 27.2% have household incomes of $200K or more, vs. 23.0% of US adults.
Hearing it from the personas. To understand the motivations behind these numbers, I ran synthetic interviews about holiday shopping last season using Synthetic Users, a platform for qualitative research with AI-simulated participants. I modeled the participants on EPIC personas, and each one answered interview questions based on that profile. They’re a quick way to explore the “why” behind the data, but they aren’t real shoppers, so I treat their answers as directional.
A sale didn’t automatically create urgency. As one interviewee said, “I didn’t want the countdown on a sale to make the decision for me.” For another, available time mattered more than the discount: “I’m not out there chasing the deal itself — it’s more about when I actually have time to sit down and do it, and that’s Thanksgiving weekend, deal or no deal.”
Social could spark interest, but trust shaped what happened next. Explaining why store websites were preferred, one interviewee said, “With a social platform, I’m never quite sure who is actually handling the transaction or where my information is going.” Another did buy from a Facebook seller, but a family connection helped him get there: “I think I just trusted it cause my cousin had bought from her before too, so that made me feel a little better about it.”
So what does that mean for brands? To me, this lines up with the trust story in Bank of America’s survey. Younger shoppers are still on social media and still drawn to the creators who tell them what to buy. They’re less drawn to sale events, deals, and AI as a topic. Parents, meanwhile, lean toward sale days and deals, and more of them have high household incomes. Heading into December, I think brands need a plan for each. Parents will respond to strong offers at the right time. Younger shoppers are more likely to follow shopping creators, so brands need a reason to buy beyond a discount.
Consumer Corner: What I'm Into This Week
Listening: Dominic & Junior
Dominic Chianese, yes, Uncle Junior himself, has a podcast with his son. Tune in for conversations about The Sopranos, family, New York, and more.
Watching: The NWSL Playoffs
The quarterfinals are set, and the league has a full weekend ahead. San Diego hosts Utah on Friday night, Kansas City hosts Angel City on Saturday, and ABC carries Gotham vs. Seattle and Washington vs. Portland on Sunday.
Eating: Ragù alla Genovese
Despite the name, Genovese is a Naples dish. It’s a white ragù built almost entirely from onions and beef (sometimes veal or pork), with no tomato. The meat and onions cook slowly until the onions caramelize and bring out their natural sweetness. That usually takes three to four hours, which gives the sauce its brown color, jammy onions, and meat that falls apart. It’s traditionally served over ziti or paccheri.
The name has a few competing explanations. One says Genoese sailors visiting the port of Naples liked it so much that the dish took their name. Another says a Neapolitan chef known as “the Genovese” invented it. Either way, it’s one of Naples' two great pasta ragùs, next to the tomato-based ragù napoletano. Cooks sometimes call it a poor man’s ragù because it uses so much onion compared to meat. I’ve been making it as the colder weather sets in, and even though it takes over 8 hours, it’s a dish you can stretch over a few days and is well worth the time!
